Applications of statistics and probability in civil by M H Faber; Jochen Köhler; Kazuyoshi Nishijima

By M H Faber; Jochen Köhler; Kazuyoshi Nishijima

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If a defect does not require immediate intervention, the remaining life of the pipeline at the defect will be estimated such that a re-inspection/repair interval can be quantified. If reliability-based methodologies are being used in the pipeline integrity management, the re-inspection/repair interval can be determined by evaluating the time at which the time-dependent failure probability (typically on an annual basis) due to the SCC defect exceeds the allowable failure probability. An efficient methodology was developed in this study to evaluate the time-dependent failure probability of a pressurized oil or gas pipeline containing an SCC defect.

These input parameter ranges can be accounted for in a non-systematic, deterministic manner. The range of possible construction times can be restricted by establishing both an optimistic and a pessimistic consideration. In most cases, a value between the two defined boundaries is applied. No statement can be made, however, about the accuracy of the value selected. The type of work, the conditions under which this work is performed, the amount and quality of the work and the construction time required are factors that determine the cost level, and thus pricing.

The CERRA board members are thanked for supporting with the nomination for the Allin Cornell Award which was given for the first time at this conference. A special acknowledgment is forwarded to the sponsors of the conference. Their support underlined the importance of the event. They made it possible to provide financial support for the CERRA Student Recognition Awards and furthermore helped to keep the registration fee low. We forward our sincere thanks to the members of the organizing committee.

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